安融（香港）评级确认大不列颠及北爱尔兰联合王国“AA-”国际评级；展望:负面
安融（香港）评级确认大不列颠及北爱尔兰联合王国“AA-”国际评级；展望:负面
2024年12月30日，中国香港。安融（香港）评级确认大不列颠及北爱尔兰联合王国（简称“英国”）的长期主体评级为“AA-”，展望为“负面”。
评级结果肯定了英国作为世界第六大经济体，欧洲第二大经济体，工业和服务业均较为发达，伦敦是全球重要的金融中心；2021年以来，英国政府行政效率和政府廉洁度均处于全球前列，同时也关注了英国人口老龄化将对经济发展产生一定挑战；俄乌冲突对英国的金融业、能源供应、外交政策以及国内治安都造成了一定负面影响；财政支出常年维持高位，导致长期财政赤字，债务保持较高水平；若未来苏格兰和英国的政治分歧加深，英国分裂风险将有所增长。
关键评级观点
优势
英国作为世界第六大经济体，欧洲第二大经济体，工业和服务业均较为发达；
2021年以来，英国政府行政效率和政府廉洁度均处于全球前列。
关注
英国人口老龄化将对经济发展产生一定挑战；
俄乌冲突对英国的金融业、能源供应、外交政策以及国内治安都造成了一定负面影响；
英国财政支出常年维持高位，导致长期财政赤字，债务保持较高水平；
若未来苏格兰和英国的政治分歧加深，英国分裂风险将有所增长。
评级展望
俄乌冲突对英国的金融业、能源供应、外交政策以及国内治安都造成了一定负面影响，若未来苏格兰和英国的政治分歧加深，英国分裂风险将有所增长。综合考虑，安融（香港）评级授予英国的信用评级展望为负面。
注：
1、上述评级均为主动评级。
2、本文译自英文版新闻稿。若有分歧，以英文版为准。
专案组组员
林芮礽，分析师
评审委员会主任
胡超
Huchao@arrating.com
媒体联系
complaints@arrating.com
评级服务联系
林芮礽
相关信用评级委员会召开日期：2024年12月30日
若欲获取进一步的信息，敬请访问www.arrating.com
相关的评级方法和模型
《主权信用评级方法和模型》（2024年11月28日）
免责条款
本次评级依据评级对象已经正式对外公布的信息，相关信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准确性和及时性由评级对象及其信息发布方负责。安融(香港)评级按照相关性、及时性、可靠性的原则对评级信息进行了审慎分析，但对上述信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准确性和及时性不作任何保证。评级结果未考虑无法获取的可能对信用等级有重要影响的非公开数据。
本报告对评级对象信用状况的任何表述和判断仅作为相关决策参考之用，并不意味着安融(香港)评级实质性建议任何使用者据本报告采取投资、借贷和交易等行为，也不能作为使用者购买、出售或持有相关金融产品的依据。在任何情况下，安融(香港)评级、安融(香港)评级董事、股东、雇员、代表不对任何投资者（包括机构投资者和个人投资者）使用本报告所表述的安融(香港)评级的分析结果而出现的任何损害、开支、费用或损失承担任何责任，亦不对被评对象或其发行人使用本报告或将本报告提供给其它方所产生的任何后果承担任何责任。
ARHK Affirms ‘AA-’ International Rating to The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Outlook Negative
30 December 2024
Hong Kong, December 30, 2024. ARHK has affirmed an international scale long-term issuer credit rating of ‘AA-’ to The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (hereinafter referred to as ‘UK’) with a negative outlook.
The rating results confirm that the UK is the sixth-largest economy in the world and the second-largest economy in Europe, with well-developed industrial and service sectors. London stands as a key global financial center. Since 2021, the UK government’s administrative efficiency and government integrity have been at the forefront of the world. However, the UK’s rating is constrained by several factors. UK’s population aging poses challenges to economic development. The Russia-Ukraine conflict adversely affects the UK’s financial sector, energy supply, foreign policy, and domestic security. Persistent high levels of fiscal expenditures lead to long-term fiscal deficits and elevated debt levels. Additionally, if political tensions between Scotland and the UK rise in the future, the UK’s risk of division will increase.
KEY RATING PERSPECTIVES
Strengths
The UK is the sixth-largest economy in the world and the second-largest economy in Europe, with well-developed industrial and service sectors.
Since 2021, the UK government’s administrative efficiency and government integrity have been at the forefront of the world.
Weaknesses
UK’s population aging poses challenges to economic development.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict adversely affects the UK’s financial sector, energy supply, foreign policy, and domestic security.
Persistent high levels of fiscal expenditures lead to long-term fiscal deficits and elevated debt levels.
If political tensions between Scotland and the UK rise in the future, the UK’s risk of division will increase.
RATING OUTLOOK
The negative outlook for the UK reflects our view that the Russia-Ukraine conflict adversely affects the UK’s financial sector, energy supply, foreign policy, and domestic security. Additionally, if political tensions between Scotland and the UK rise in the future, the UK’s risk of division will increase. Taking all factors into consideration, ARHK assigns a negative outlook to the credit rating of UK.
NOTE:
1. The above ratings are all unsolicited credit ratings.
2. The Chinese version of this article is translated from the English version of the press release. In case of discrepancies, the English version shall prevail.
ANALYST CONTACTS
Analyst
Lam Yui Ying
Committee Chair
James Hu
Media Contact
Rating Services Contact
Lam Yui Ying
Date of Relevant Rating Committee: 30 December 2024
Additional information is available on www.arrating.com
Related Criteria
Sovereign Credit Rating Methods and Models (28 November 2024)
DISCLAIMER
This rating is based on information officially released to the public by the rated objects. The legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the relevant information are the responsibility of the rated objects and its information publishers. ARHK has conducted a prudent analysis of the rating information based on the principles of relevance, timeliness, and reliability, but does not guarantee the legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the above information. The rating results did not take into account non-public information that may have a significant impact on the credit rating and could not be obtained.
Any statements and judgments regarding the credit status of the rated objects in this report are only for reference in relevant decision-making and do not imply that ARHK substantively recommends any user to invest, borrow or lend money, and trade based on this report, nor can they be used as a basis for users to purchase, sell, or hold related financial products. Under no circumstances shall ARHK, as well as its directors, shareholders, employees, or representatives be liable for any damages, expenses, costs, or losses incurred by any investor (including institutional and individual investors) as a result of using the analysis results presented in this report, nor shall they be liable for any consequences arising from the use of this report by the rated objects or their issuers or providing this report to other parties.