安融（香港）评级确认南非共和国“BB+”国际评级；展望:稳定
安融（香港）评级确认南非共和国“BB+”国际评级；展望:稳定
2024年12月30日，中国香港。安融（香港）评级确认南非共和国（简称“南非”）的长期主体评级为“BB+”，展望为“稳定”。
评级结果肯定了南非有较为成熟的资本市场，其矿产资源出口改善了经常帐户赤字；同时也关注到南非经济增长乏力，超预期通胀和高额财政赤字使得其抵御外部风险能力较弱。
关键评级观点
优势
成熟的金融市场和金融机构能够为经济运行和融资提供缓冲作用；
丰富的矿产资源储备及出口能缓解经常帐户赤字；
整体经济的外币负债比例较低，外债结构较为合理，对外偿付风险可控。
关注
南非的经济增速长期处于低位，主要由于高失业率、结构性改革滞后、以及能源短缺等问题；
南非的债务水平和财政赤字在新兴市场国家中处于较高水平。财政赤字主要源于高福利支出和国有企业补贴；
南非的高失业率和贫富差距导致社会矛盾加剧，犯罪率上升。
评级展望
预计南非经济将稳步缓慢增长，系统风险较低。综合考虑，安融（香港）评级给予南非的信用评级展望为稳定。
注：
1、上述评级均为主动评级。
2、本文译自英文版新闻稿。若有分歧，以英文版为准。
专案组组员
林芮礽，分析师
评审委员会主任
胡超
Huchao@arrating.com
媒体联系
complaints@arrating.com
评级服务联系
林芮礽
相关信用评级委员会召开日期：2024年12月30日
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相关的评级方法和模型
《主权信用评级方法和模型》（2024年11月28日）
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本次评级依据评级对象已经正式对外公布的信息，相关信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准确性和及时性由评级对象及其信息发布方负责。安融(香港)评级按照相关性、及时性、可靠性的原则对评级信息进行了审慎分析，但对上述信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准确性和及时性不作任何保证。评级结果未考虑无法获取的可能对信用等级有重要影响的非公开数据。
本报告对评级对象信用状况的任何表述和判断仅作为相关决策参考之用，并不意味着安融(香港)评级实质性建议任何使用者据本报告采取投资、借贷和交易等行为，也不能作为使用者购买、出售或持有相关金融产品的依据。在任何情况下，安融(香港)评级、安融(香港)评级董事、股东、雇员、代表不对任何投资者（包括机构投资者和个人投资者）使用本报告所表述的安融(香港)评级的分析结果而出现的任何损害、开支、费用或损失承担任何责任，亦不对被评对象或其发行人使用本报告或将本报告提供给其它方所产生的任何后果承担任何责任。
ARHK Affirms ‘BB+’ International Rating to The Republic of South Africa, Outlook Stable
30 December 2024
Hong Kong, December 30, 2024. ARHK has affirmed an international scale long-term issuer credit rating of ‘BB+’ to The Republic of South Africa (hereinafter referred to as ‘South Africa’), with a stable outlook.
The rating results confirm that South Africa has a relatively mature capital market. Its mineral resource exports have contributed to an improvement in the current account deficit. The rating also highlights concerns regarding weak economic growth, unexpectedly high inflation, and a large fiscal deficit, which have weakened its capacity to withstand external risks.
KEY RATING PERSPECTIVES
Strengths
The mature financial markets and institutions provide a buffer for economic operations and financing.
Abundant mineral resource reserves and exports help mitigate the current account deficit.
The government and overall economy have a relatively low proportion of foreign currency-denominated debt, with a reasonable external debt structure and manageable external repayment risks.
Weaknesses
South Africa’s long-term economic growth has been chronically low, mainly due to issues such as the high unemployment rate, delays in structural reforms, and energy shortages.
South Africa’s debt levels and fiscal deficit are relatively high among emerging market countries. Fiscal deficits mainly resulted from high welfare expenditures and state-owned enterprise subsidies.
South Africa’s high unemployment rate and significant wealth inequality have exacerbated social tensions and increased crime rates.
RATING OUTLOOK
South Africa’s economy is expected to experience gradual and slow growth with low systemic risk. Taking all factors into consideration, ARHK assigns a stable outlook to the credit rating of South Africa.
NOTE:
1.The above ratings are all unsolicited credit ratings.
2.The Chinese version of this article is translated from the English version of the press release. In case of discrepancies, the English version shall prevail.
ANALYST CONTACTS
Analyst
Lam Yui Ying
Committee Chair
James Hu
Media Contact
Rating Services Contact
Lam Yui Ying
Date of Relevant Rating Committee: 30 December 2024
Additional information is available on www.arrating.com
Related Criteria
Sovereign Credit Rating Methods and Models (28 November 2024)
DISCLAIMER
This rating is based on information officially released to the public by the rated objects. The legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the relevant information are the responsibility of the rated objects and its information publishers. ARHK has conducted a prudent analysis of the rating information based on the principles of relevance, timeliness, and reliability, but does not guarantee the legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the above information. The rating results did not take into account non-public information that may have a significant impact on the credit rating and could not be obtained.
Any statements and judgments regarding the credit status of the rated objects in this report are only for reference in relevant decision-making and do not imply that ARHK substantively recommends any user to invest, borrow or lend money, and trade based on this report, nor can they be used as a basis for users to purchase, sell, or hold related financial products. Under no circumstances shall ARHK, as well as its directors, shareholders, employees, or representatives be liable for any damages, expenses, costs, or losses incurred by any investor (including institutional and individual investors) as a result of using the analysis results presented in this report, nor shall they be liable for any consequences arising from the use of this report by the rated objects or their issuers or providing this report to other parties.