安融（香港）评级确认印度共和国“BBB-”长期外币主权信用等级；展望:稳定
安融（香港）评级确认印度共和国“BBB-”长期外币主权信用等级；展望:稳定
2024年12月30日，中国香港。安融（香港）评级确认印度共和国（简称“印度”）的长期外币主权信用等级为“BBB-”，展望为“稳定”。
评级结果肯定了印度经济体量大且经济结构多元化，经济增长强劲，人口红利支撑长期经济增长前景；政府债务结构较优，债务以内债和长期债务为主；外商直接投资保持净流入态势，外汇储备充足且对短期外债的覆盖程度高，同时也关注了印度财政赤字高企、政府债务水平居高不下且债务偿付能力弱；人均GDP水平较低，失业率仍居高不下；印人党在议会选举中失去绝对多数席位或影响莫迪改革议程的推进等风险要素。
关键评级观点
优势
经济体量大且经济结构多元化，经济增长强劲，人口红利支撑长期经济增长前景。
政府债务结构较优，债务以内债和长期债务为主。
外商直接投资保持净流入态势，外汇储备充足且对短期外债的覆盖程度高。
关注
财政赤字高企、政府债务水平居高不下且债务偿付能力弱。
人均GDP水平较低，失业率仍居高不下。
印人党在议会选举中失去绝对多数席位或影响莫迪改革议程的推进。
评级展望
预计印度经济保持增长，财政赤字及债务负担或得到有效控制。综合考虑，安融评级授予印度的信用评级展望为稳定。
注：
1、上述评级均为主动评级。
2、本文译自英文版新闻稿。若有分歧，以英文版为准。
专案组组员
林芮礽，分析师
评审委员会主任
胡超
huchao@arrating.com
媒体联系
complaints@arrating.com
评级服务联系
林芮礽
相关信用评级委员会召开日期：2024年12月30日
若欲获取进一步的信息，敬请访问www.arrating.com
相关的评级方法和模型
《主权信用评级方法和模型》（2024年11月28日）
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本次评级依据评级对象已经正式对外公布的信息，相关信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准确性和及时性由评级对象及其信息发布方负责。安融(香港)评级按照相关性、及时性、可靠性的原则对评级信息进行了审慎分析，但对上述信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准确性和及时性不作任何保证。评级结果未考虑无法获取的可能对信用等级有重要影响的非公开数据。
本报告对评级对象信用状况的任何表述和判断仅作为相关决策参考之用，并不意味着安融(香港)评级实质性建议任何使用者据本报告采取投资、借贷和交易等行为，也不能作为使用者购买、出售或持有相关金融产品的依据。在任何情况下，安融(香港)评级、安融(香港)评级董事、股东、雇员、代表不对任何投资者（包括机构投资者和个人投资者）使用本报告所表述的安融(香港)评级的分析结果而出现的任何损害、开支、费用或损失承担任何责任，亦不对被评对象或其发行人使用本报告或将本报告提供给其他方所产生的任何后果承担任何责任。
ARHK Affirms ‘BBB-’ International Rating to India, Outlook Stable
30 December 2024
Hong Kong, December 30, 2024. ARHK has affirmed an international scale long-term issuer credit rating of ‘BBB-’ to The Republic of India (hereinafter referred to as ‘India’), with a stable outlook.
The rating results confirm
India's large economic scale and diversified economic structure, strong economic growth, and demographic dividend supporting long-term economic growth prospects; the government's debt structure is relatively favorable, with debt primarily in domestic and long-term debt; foreign direct investment maintains a net inflow trend, foreign exchange reserves are adequate and provide high coverage of short-term foreign debt. However, concerns are noted regarding India's high fiscal deficit, elevated government debt levels, and weak debt repayment capacity; low per capita GDP level, and high unemployment rate; as well as the risk factors of the Bharatiya Janata Party losing an absolute majority in parliamentary elections, potentially affecting the advancement of Modi's reform agenda.
KEY RATING PERSPECTIVES
Strengths
Large economic scale and diversified economic structure, strong economic growth, demographic dividend supporting long-term economic growth prospects.
The government's debt structure is relatively favorable, with debt primarily in domestic and long-term debt.
Foreign direct investment maintains a net inflow trend, foreign exchange reserves are adequate and cover short-term foreign debt to a high degree.
Weaknesses
High fiscal deficit, elevated government debt levels, and weak debt repayment capacity.
Low per capita GDP level, high unemployment rate.
The Bharatiya Janata Party losing an absolute majority in parliamentary elections or affecting the advancement of Modi's reform agenda.
RATING OUTLOOK
It is expected that the Indian economy will maintain growth, fiscal deficit and debt burden may be effectively controlled, and institutional strength is expected to improve. Taking all factors into consideration, ARHK assigns a stable outlook to the credit rating of India.
NOTE:
1. The above ratings are all unsolicited credit ratings.
2. The Chinese version of this article is translated from the English version of the press release. In case of discrepancies, the English version shall prevail.
ANALYST CONTACTS
Analyst
Lam Yui Ying
Committee Chair
James Hu
Media Contact
Rating Services Contact
Lam Yui Ying
Date of Relevant Rating Committee: 30 December 2024
Additional information is available on www.arrating.com
Related Criteria
Sovereign Credit Rating Methods and Models (28 November 2024)
DISCLAIMER
This rating is based on information officially released to the public by the rated objects. The legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the relevant information are the responsibility of the rated objects and its information publishers. ARHK has conducted a prudent analysis of the rating information based on the principles of relevance, timeliness, and reliability, but does not guarantee the legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the above information. The rating results did not take into account non-public information that may have a significant impact on the credit rating and could not be obtained.
Any statements and judgments regarding the credit status of the rated objects in this report are only for reference in relevant decision-making and do not imply that ARHK substantively recommends any user to invest, borrow or lend money, and trade based on this report, nor can they be used as a basis for users to purchase, sell, or hold related financial products. Under no circumstances shall ARHK, as well as its directors, shareholders, employees, or representatives be liable for any damages, expenses, costs, or losses incurred by any investor (including institutional and individual investors) as a result of using the analysis results presented in this report, nor shall they be liable for any consequences arising from the use of this report by the rated objects or their issuers or providing this report to other parties.