安融（香港）评级确认法兰西共和国“AA-”长期外币主权信用等级；展望:稳定
安融（香港）评级确认法兰西共和国“AA-”长期外币主权信用等级；展望:稳定
2024年12月5日，中国香港。安融（香港）评级确认法兰西共和国（简称“法国”）的长期外币主权信用等级为“AA-”，展望为“稳定”。
评级结果肯定了法国的经济体量庞大、经济发达程度很高、政治体制健全且法律制度完善以及法国在欧盟较强的话语权，同时也关注了法国财政赤字率进一步走扩、政府债务规模攀升、政局及社会稳定性出现一定动摇、外债压力大可能对评级结果造成影响。
关键评级观点
优势
法国经济体量庞大且经济结构十分多元，多个行业发展水平居于世界前列，经济发达程度很高。
法国政治体制健全且法律制度完善，在欧盟具有较高话语权。
政府强有力的改革对经济发展起到较大的支撑作用，经济具有较强韧性。
关注
法国财政赤字率不断走扩，政府债务规模不断攀升。
退休改革计划和其他社会事件引发的大规模骚乱折射出法国政府与民众矛盾深刻，社会稳定性出现动摇。
法国外债压力较大，其中短期外债偿付压力较为突出。
评级展望
法国经济增速有望持续复苏，通胀压力或得到有效控制，政局稳定性有望得到修复。综合考虑，安融评级授予法国的信用评级展望为稳定。
注：
1、上述评级均为主动评级。
2、本文译自英文版新闻稿。若有分歧，以英文版为准。
专案组组员
林芮礽，分析师
评审委员会主任
胡超
huchao@arrating.com
媒体联系
complaints@arrating.com
评级服务联系
林芮礽
相关信用评级委员会召开日期：2024年12月5日
若欲获取进一步的信息，敬请访问www.arrating.com
相关的评级方法和模型
《主权信用评级方法和模型》（2024年11月28日）
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本次评级依据评级对象已经正式对外公布的信息，相关信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准确性和及时性由评级对象及其信息发布方负责。安融(香港)评级按照相关性、及时性、可靠性的原则对评级信息进行了审慎分析，但对上述信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准确性和及时性不作任何保证。评级结果未考虑无法获取的可能对信用等级有重要影响的非公开数据。
本报告对评级对象信用状况的任何表述和判断仅作为相关决策参考之用，并不意味着安融(香港)评级实质性建议任何使用者据本报告采取投资、借贷和交易等行为，也不能作为使用者购买、出售或持有相关金融产品的依据。在任何情况下，安融(香港)评级、安融(香港)评级董事、股东、雇员、代表不对任何投资者（包括机构投资者和个人投资者）使用本报告所表述的安融(香港)评级的分析结果而出现的任何损害、开支、费用或损失承担任何责任，亦不对被评对象或其发行人使用本报告或将本报告提供给其他方所产生的任何后果承担任何责任。
ARHK Affirms ‘AA-’ International Rating to The French Republic, Outlook Stable
5 December 2024
Hong Kong, December 5, 2024. ARHK has affirmed an international scale long-term issuer credit rating of ‘AA-’ to The French Republic (hereinafter referred to as ‘French’), with a stable outlook.
The rating results confirm France's large economic scale, high level of economic development, sound political system, and well-established legal system, as well as France's strong voice within the European Union. It also notes about the further expansion of France's fiscal deficit ratio, the rising scale of government debt, potential instability in political and social stability, and the significant external debt pressure that may affect the rating result.
KEY RATING PERSPECTIVES
Strengths
France has a large economic scale and a highly diversified economic structure, with several industries leading globally in terms of development level and a high degree of economic development.
France has a sound political system and a well-established legal system, with a significant voice in European Union.
Strong government reforms have significantly supported economic development, and the economy is highly resilient.
Weaknesses
France's fiscal deficit ratio continues to expand, and government debt levels continue to rise.
The pension reform plan and other social events have triggered large-scale unrest, reflecting deep-seated conflicts between the French government and the public, leading to potential instability in social stability.
France faces significant external debt pressure, particularly with short-term external debt repayment pressure being prominent.
RATING OUTLOOK
France's economic growth rate is expected to continue recovering, inflation pressure may be effectively controlled, and political stability is expected to be restored. Taking all factors into consideration, ARHK assigns a stable outlook to the credit rating of France.
NOTE:
1. The above ratings are all unsolicited credit ratings.
2. The Chinese version of this article is translated from the English version of the press release. In case of discrepancies, the English version shall prevail.
ANALYST CONTACTS
Analyst
Lam Yui Ying
Committee Chair
James Hu
Media Contact
Rating Services Contact
Lam Yui Ying
Date of Relevant Rating Committee: 5 December 2024
Additional information is available on www.arrating.com
Related Criteria
Sovereign Credit Rating Methods and Models (28 November 2024)
DISCLAIMER
This rating is based on information officially released to the public by the rated objects. The legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the relevant information are the responsibility of the rated objects and its information publishers. ARHK has conducted a prudent analysis of the rating information based on the principles of relevance, timeliness, and reliability, but does not guarantee the legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the above information. The rating results did not take into account non-public information that may have a significant impact on the credit rating and could not be obtained.
Any statements and judgments regarding the credit status of the rated objects in this report are only for reference in relevant decision-making and do not imply that ARHK substantively recommends any user to invest, borrow or lend money, and trade based on this report, nor can they be used as a basis for users to purchase, sell, or hold related financial products. Under no circumstances shall ARHK, as well as its directors, shareholders, employees, or representatives be liable for any damages, expenses, costs, or losses incurred by any investor (including institutional and individual investors) as a result of using the analysis results presented in this report, nor shall they be liable for any consequences arising from the use of this report by the rated objects or their issuers or providing this report to other parties.